Base metals generally declined, with SHFE tin and COMEX silver leading the declines. Ferrous metals series mostly rose, with coke up 1.79% [overnight market].

SMM News on June 20:

Metal Market:

Overnight, domestic market base metals generally declined, with SHFE tin falling 1.48%, SHFE copper dropping 0.27%, SHFE aluminum decreasing 0.32%, and SHFE nickel slightly dipping 0.06%. SHFE lead rose 0.18%, while SHFE zinc fell 0.07%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures dropped 0.48%, and the most-traded continuous casting aluminum futures fell 0.13%.

Overnight, the ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore increasing 0.43%, stainless steel remaining flat at 12,560 yuan/mt, rebar rising 0.17%, and HRC gaining 0.26%. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 1.02%, and coke increased 1.79%.

Overnight, overseas market metals generally declined, with LME copper falling 0.37%, LME aluminum dropping 0.84%, LME lead decreasing 0.23%, LME zinc rising 0.38%, LME tin falling 0.79%, and LME nickel slightly declining.

Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.61%, and COMEX silver dropped 1.5%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 0.11%, and SHFE silver declined 1.11%.

As of 8:20 a.m. on June 20, overnight closing prices

》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic:

[He Lifeng Attends Opening Ceremony of 6th Qingdao Summit for Leaders of Multinational Corporations, Stating China is an Ideal, Safe, and Promising Investment Destination for Multinational Corporations] According to Xinhua News Agency, the 6th Qingdao Summit for Leaders of Multinational Corporations opened on the 19th. He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, attended the opening ceremony and delivered a speech. He Lifeng pointed out that President Xi Jinping highly values the important position and role of multinational corporations in China's reform and opening-up process. China possesses a super-large domestic market and the world's most complete industrial system, demonstrating strong economic development resilience and growth potential, making it an ideal, safe, and promising investment destination for multinational corporations. He Lifeng emphasized that China will unswervingly promote high-level opening-up, create a world-class business environment, and firmly uphold the multilateral trading system. Global multinational corporations and entrepreneurs are welcome to invest and do business in China, sharing opportunities, developing together, and creating a future together.

[Latest Statement from the Ministry of Commerce! Discusses Rare Earth Exports and China-EU Economic and Trade Relations] On the afternoon of June 19, the Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference. At the conference, spokesperson He Yadong stated that China will continuously accelerate the review of export license applications related to rare earths in accordance with laws and regulations, has approved compliant applications, and will continue to strengthen the approval process, willing to enhance communication and dialogue on export controls with relevant countries. He Yadong also stated that China is fully prepared to join the CPTPP, has made pricing preparations for market access in various fields, and has conducted extensive exchanges with members. 》Click for details

US Dollar:

The US dollar index fell by 0.09% overnight, closing at 98.77. The index surged to 99.16 during Thursday's trading session, hitting a new high in over a week, but gave up gains in the late session. The US market was closed for a holiday, and low trading volumes may have amplified the volatility of the US dollar index. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Fed policymakers still forecast a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut this year, but they have slowed the pace of future rate cuts. However, Fed Chairman Powell warned against overemphasizing this outlook, noting that "considerably high" inflation is expected in the future as import tariff hikes loom.

Other Currencies:

On Tuesday (June 17), Norges Bank announced a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.25%, its first rate cut in five years, surprising most analysts. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG, said the timing of Norges Bank's rate cut was unexpected, as the market had not received strong signals beforehand. The rate cut was driven by lower-than-expected inflation, creating room for the cut. He also pointed out that the overall path of future rate cuts remains unchanged, only the timing has been brought forward, which may alleviate selling pressure on the Norwegian krone after the market digests the initial shock. Jan von Gerich, Chief Market Strategist at Nordea, believes that although the market did not anticipate this rate cut, nothing should be ruled out amid uncertainty. The magnitude of the rate cut was not as large as expected, but it suggests that Norges Bank's policy normalization process may be faster than anticipated. He also mentioned that the US Fed stands out as more "independent" among global central banks. Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, noted that Norges Bank was the last G10 central bank to maintain a hawkish stance, and the market had not factored in its rate cut. This rate cut may signal a shift towards a more accommodative policy, aiming to preemptively address potential economic weakness in the coming quarters. Kenneth Broux, Head of FX and Rates Research at Société Générale Corporate Research, believes that the recent appreciation of the Norwegian krone, which has helped curb inflation, provided confidence for the rate cut. Norges Bank lowered its inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 to 2.2% and 2.3%, respectively. (FX168)

Preliminary trade statistics for May released by Japan's Ministry of Finance showed that Japan's export value to the US fell by 11.1% YoY in May. Among them, auto exports, which were most affected by the US government's tariff measures, saw a significant decline, dropping by 24.7% YoY. Japanese economic experts believe that the impact of US tariff measures is gradually emerging, and it will be difficult for the Japanese government to reach a consensus with the US government in the short term. (CCTV News)

Data Releases:

Today, the following data will be released: China's one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for June, China's five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for June, the UK's seasonally adjusted month-on-month retail sales for May, the UK's seasonally adjusted month-on-month core retail sales for May, China's year-on-year total electricity consumption for May (monthly), the Eurozone's seasonally adjusted year-on-year M3 money supply for May, the US Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's manufacturing index for June, Canada's month-on-month retail sales for April, Canada's month-on-month core retail sales for April, and the Eurozone's preliminary consumer confidence index for June. Additionally, notable events include: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech at the Trust Association Annual Meeting, and Russian President Vladimir Putin's speech at the 28th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Crude Oil Market:

Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose, with WTI up 0.52% and Brent up 2.66%. The escalating week-long conflict between Israel and Iran, coupled with market concerns over potential US involvement, supported oil prices. Trading was sluggish due to a US federal holiday on Thursday.

Iran is the third-largest oil producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), with crude oil production of approximately 3.3 million barrels per day. Around 18 million to 21 million barrels of oil and oil products pass through the Strait of Hormuz, located off Iran's southern coast, each day. The market is generally concerned that the Israel-Iran conflict could disrupt oil trade flows. JPMorgan Chase stated on Thursday that in the extreme scenario of the conflict expanding to a broader region, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could surge to $120-130 per barrel. Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday that given reduced Iranian supplies and the potential for broader supply disruptions that could push Brent crude above $90 per barrel, a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel is reasonable.
　　
A senior Russian oil official stated on Thursday that OPEC producers should continue with plans to increase output in light of growing summer demand. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the economic forum in St. Petersburg that OPEC should calmly implement its plans and not use forecasts to frighten the market.

Due to the impact of contract rollover, the final on-exchange trading for the July NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract will conclude at 2:30 AM on June 21, and the final electronic trading will conclude at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to the exchange's contract rollover announcements to manage risks. Additionally, the expiration time for WTI crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration. Please take note.(Webstock Inc.)